China’s growth over the last four decades has been amazing. Since it adopted the Japanese economic development model of top-down, government-directed, corporatist, export-oriented capitalism it has grown from a poor, backward, weak nation to become the world’s #2 power. Many experts expect it to pass the US before mid-century. That is China’s official, stated goal.
We have seen this act before, and it had an unexpected outcome. Japan grew very rapidly from the early 1950s until the early 1990s. It too was supposed to pass the US and become #1.
But … since 1990, Japan’s growth has been about 1% per year. It has fallen way behind the US and is falling further and further behind.
The causes … huge debt, stock, and real estate bubbles that burst in the early 1990s. Its model works great for decades and then fails.
China has faithfully copied the Japanese economic model. It now has huge debt and real estate bubbles as well as many other problems like those of Japan before Japan’s crash. China is also a totalitarian dictatorship that lacks the free market forces and entrepreneurship it takes to become truly rich.
For these reasons and others China will not pass the US as #1.
Dr Tuchfarber will explain these facts and analysis in his engaging, interactive style.
Some additional issues Professor Tuchfarber will address are:
- How will the US – China trade war affect China’s future?
- Will China get old before it gets rich?
- Why has China’s use of the Japanese economic development model both helped and hurt the Middle Kingdom?
- Why will the US’s long-term growth trends outpace China’s?
- Has China nearly reached its peak?
- What unsustainable practice, that has fueled China’s recent growth, is doomed to backfire?
- How will its increasing totalitarianism cripple China?
- How is US uniqueness likely to keep it #1?
Alfred J Tuchfarber PhD, Professor Emeritus of Political Science – University of Cincinnati
Owner – Tuchfarber Political-Economics, LLC, Blogger – TuchfarberReport.com
- Al Tuchfarber is an academic and entrepreneur who has had a successful career as a teacher, researcher, senior administrator, campaign manager, political analyst, organizational strategist, and writer.
- He holds a PhD in political science and has well over 100 publications.
- Al’s intellectual and practical interests are very wide-ranging. He has spent his career both in the arena of ideas but also in the “real-world” where the rubber hits the road…where things must work.
- Areas of special interest to him are American politics and political-economics, global politics and global political-economics, political polling, campaign and organizational strategies, demographics, and societal change.
- Tuchfarber founded the Ohio Poll and directed it for a quarter century. The Poll established a remarkable record for accuracy in predicting elections and has been rated one of the nation’s best.
- Al brings that experience and skill-set to his weekly blog — the Tuchfarber Report, as well as to his consulting, speaking, and writing.
- His predictions are 80 to 95% accurate because they are based on facts, data, history and common sense…NOT on ideology, partisanship, or hopes.
As a political-economic analyst and author of the Tuchfarber Report, Al brings you insights and forecasts that you will not find elsewhere.